2021 Dynasty QB Rankings

Look, the reality is that if there were some magic formula to player success, fantasy football would be no fun. Subjectivity in valuing players is what allows for hilarious trades and the occasional “WTF” bragging rights (pic related).

Subjectivity is what allows us to provide you with our own interpretations of dynasty QB rankings. With that, we’ve each compiled our top 40 dynasty QBs and used that to determine our consensus rankings.

Dak Prescott

Will: “Ben, why do you have Dak at 5? Injury related? Love for Herbert?”

Ben: “Definitely part injury. Injuries always scare a little bit; at these levels even a tiny decline can cost a career. Also definitely part Herbert. His age, his amazing first year, and his surroundings all help him. Finally, part Kellen Moore. I think a big reason for Dak’s production is Kellen Moore – and considering his age and his talent, it’s not going to be long before Moore is pulled elsewhere, which would put Dak at the mercy of an unknown OC.”

Will: “Do Dak’s numbers drop this year? Obviously that’s a high standard to maintain.”

Scherber: “Dak was on pace for, like, NFL records across the board, so probably.”

Sam: “I think Dak has a big year, I don’t think he will put up a historic year but 5000 yards is possible.”

Will: “Outside QB1 territory?”

Scherber: “If he’s healthy, he’ll be a QB1.”

Ben: “I don’t think he sees a significant drop. I’d still think he puts up top 8 numbers even with a drop. Surroundings are primo. I’d put his floor in the range that Burrow and Lawrence are currently projected.”

Trevor Lawrence

Scherber: “What’s everyone’s thoughts on Lawrence? I don’t necessarily think he’s bust proof, but the hype is so high that his value is safe as a high end QB1 until at least 2023.”

Will: “I ranked him highly because of future years, not specifically for this upcoming year – I think it might be rough. That Jacksonville team is still a bit of a mess. They will have their ups and downs, including Lawrence.”

Scherber: “I don’t know about Urban at the NFL level. They have some talent on offense, just a matter of if Urban knows how to utilize it. I don’t know if he’s a genius or if he’s going to be overmatched when he can’t rely on vastly superior talent. If Lawrence struggles this year, he’s still worth a ton via trade because the hype insulates him. It’ll be Urban’s fault.”

Ben: “I think Lawrence has Mahomes/Watson/Dak-level potential through the air, with a Cousins floor.”

Will: “Outside of Luck, can you think of a guy who has more pressure coming into the league?”

Scherber: “That’s part of what I like about him. He was super hyped coming into college and he lived up to it. I don’t know if he’s ‘generational’ but I think he’s going to be pretty good.”

Sam: “What do you guys think of TLaw’s completion percentage on throws after his first read? 43.4%. That makes me worried about his ability to progress through reads and be successful in the NFL.”

* It’s worth noting here that Sam references this piece from thedraftnetwork.com. They have outstanding content – be sure to check them out!

Will: “84% accuracy though.”

Ben: “Could be that his 2nd+ read throw is into tighter coverage if the accuracy and ball placement is high. Maybe a read issue, maybe scheme, could be smaller window throws – like to the sideline. I’d be curious to know depth-of-target with that stat.”

Sam: “I am not saying Lawrence fails but there are a lot of things he is going to have to learn to do in the NFL that he did not do in college. It is going to be a much bigger learning curve than most people realize.”

Justin Fields

Will: “Does Fields start at least one game this year?”

Scherber: “I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts week 1. They promised Dalton the job but if Fields is great in preseason there will be enormous pressure to start him.”

Sam: “By week 6 I expect Fields to start. Week 11 after their bye at the latest.”

Ben: “Fields and Lance are both in a position where there’s a ‘just-good-enough’ option in front of them to likely prevent them from starting week 1.”

Ryan Tannehill

Ben: “Sam, you seem to have Tannehill higher on your rankings than others. What’s the draw to Tanny for you?”

Sam: “Tannehill is coming into his own in Tennessee. He has the benefit of having the best group of receivers he has ever had. Brown is poised to be a top WR in the league. He has the benefit of defenses keying on Henry for the next couple of years. And he is only 33. He has at least 3 high level years in front of him.”

Ben: “I agree – I think the scheme is very well catered to his skills. I hesitated putting him below the young guys, but the reason I did is the potential for an extra 10-12 years with them, and their value retention is much higher.”

Scherber: “As far as the older guys go, give me Wilson, Rodgers (assuming he’s playing), and Stafford ahead of him. I like guys like Lance, Fields, and Lawrence more than Tannehill long-term so he sort of falls a bit. I totally agree that he really found a home in Tennessee and his surroundings are very good aside from sheer passing volume.”

Sam: “I can see that, though with the way QBs are lasting he could have up to 7 years left. He isn’t a guy who is dependent on running which bodes well for longevity.”

Scherber: “Definitely could. It just gets hard to maintain trade value once you get to be his age. For right or wrong.”

Daniel Jones

Ben: “Will, same question to you for Danny Dimes. What’s the draw to Jones for you?”

Will: “Daniel Jones has been an amazing player when he has talent around him. Last year was an anomaly in my eyes. Injuries to Barkley and his o-line (Thomas specifically, but others), and thin at skill positions.”

Ben: “Do you think he could potentially step into [near] QB1 territory in 2021?”

Will: “Yes, with his legs as well… If he doesn’t fall running down the field. Not a top 5 guy. A guy who scores 20-22 PPG though.”

Scherber: “He was better as a rookie but still only middle of the pack in PPG (16th I think).  I do think he has a chance to breakout this year because they finally got him some WRs. I like the Kenny G addition, and I think he could make a jump.”

Sam: “I agree he has that potential. I think it really comes down to everybody being healthy, like Will said. Losing Barkley completely changes the dynamic of their offense.”

Ben: “Didn’t he have 24 passing TDs in his shortened rookie year?”

Sam: “24 in 12 games started.”

Ben: “Well, now I want to move him up in my rankings.”

Sam Darnold

Ben: “Alright Scherber, your turn. What’s your draw to Darnold?”

Scherber: “I loved Darnold coming out so a part of it is I still think there’s a good QB in there. No one can argue the Jets weren’t run poorly under Gase, and they had terrible weapons. That doesn’t mean Darnold is great, but for where I have him ranked, I have him above super uninspiring options like Mayfield and Carr… even if Darnold is bad, he’s not going to be significantly worse on a game-by-game or trade value basis than the likes of those guys. And then there’s the upside built in because Carolina has great weapons and an OC that I love. Look, he’s my QB21, I’m not saying he’s going to be great haha.”

Will: “I’ll add that Darnold had a lot of positives coming into the league. Carolina has some amazing talent that he never saw in NY.  And Coaching is soooo much better.”

Sam: “I think Darnold is in a great situation. Honestly he couldn’t have landed in a better spot. Unfortunately I think he is a mediocre QB and with previous failures and a loaded QB draft I’m not sure he gets more than this season to show that he can be a successful starter in the league.”

Ben: “With the 5th year option picked up, if he fails it could be a Jimmy G situation next year.”

Cam Newton

Sam: “Ben, you have Cam above everyone else by a decent margin. What is it you see that you like?”

Ben: “I don’t see Mac picking up the offense and taking the reins this year. I think Cam is likely to take the entire year to try to show that last year was a God-awful failure and he’s capable of bouncing back. I see him as a guy who is at minimum always in someone’s camp, and could likely be the next Fitzmagic-type who keeps starting around the league for longer than anyone would have thought.”

Sam: “Where do you see Cam finishing this year?”

Ben: “Still low, maybe QB20-25 at best, assuming Fields and Lance don’t get more than a few games in. His ceiling is probably Fitzpatrick, his floor is…well zero.”

Scherber: “I think he’ll be better than last year… low bar though. I don’t care who you are though, unless you’re elite, you need weapons to throw to.”

Sam: “I think he isn’t an NFL caliber QB anymore. He has never been a great thrower, he could throw far but it was always the threat of the run that led to his success. With less arm strength due to injuries, and with him slowing down, his shortcomings as a passer were really exposed last year.”

Ben: “I think statistically it’s doubtful he repeats a 1/1 TD/INT ratio, and probably has closer to his 21TD/14INTs with another 6ish TDs on the ground. Solid enough to get up into the QB20s, but his arm talent (of which, I agree Sam) will limit him to that.”

Derek Carr

Scherber: “What are we doing with Derek Carr? 4100/27 is quietly pretty solid. Feels like his job is in question, but should it be? He’s another QB I’d love to see in a better setup/different team.”

Ben: “My concern isn’t his arm talent, it’s that he’s somehow always supposedly on the hot-seat. I don’t see why, but every year there’s talk of replacing him. When there’s smoke, there’s typically some level of fire.”

Will: “He was an MVP candidate like 3-4 years ago. Pretty crazy.”

Sam: “He’s a solid QB but I don’t like the receiver situation in Las Vegas.”

Will: “Ruggs is bad.”

Scherber: “I still have hope for Edwards.”

Ben: “I think both Edwards and Ruggs are better this year. When Williams went down they had to switch up receiver responsibilities. Ruggs had to go over-the-top more, but he’s MUCH more dangerous underneath. Brown is stepping into that role now, which opens Ruggs back to drags, screens, slants, and the occasional vertical route. Brown will definitely make a better Tyrell Williams than Ruggs did, and Ruggs will make a better underneath option than an over-the-top guy.”

Scherber: “They need to scheme ways to get Ruggs the ball in space. He’s not Keenan Allen or Stefon Diggs. He’s not going to run routes well enough to kill you. You’ve got to let him use that 4.2 speed. There’s so many plays in college where Ruggs catches a short ball and just runs past people.”

Sam: “So who is the top WR in Vegas? Waller not included.”

Ben: “Gut reaction is to say Brown, but his role isn’t really designed for volume. I can see Brown, Edwards, and Ruggs all getting roughly similar fantasy numbers but in wildly different capacities.  I consider Edwards to have the highest ceiling.”

Sam: “I think Edwards is the guy. Like Scherber said, they have to find a way to use Ruggs or that looks like a wasted pick.”

Josh Allen vs Kyler Murray

Will: “Why Josh Allen over Kyler Murray?”

Sam: “Allen has a better system, can run as well as Murray for fantasy purposes, and has shown that he can produce with his arm. Murray is still based more on potential, while Allen has shown us a top season.”

Ben: “Allen did more with his arm last year than Kyler has shown to be able to, up-to this point. Allen has a much higher likelihood to recede, but Murray still only put up 26 TDs through the air last year. I also think Murray’s rushing numbers take a small hit this year, which Allen doesn’t rely on to the same extent Kyler has.”

Sam: “Will, what do you like about Murray more than Allen?”

Will: “Rushing specifically. I do think Kyler improves his passing this year as well. I think we saw Allen’s best year. Not going to say he drops significantly, it’s just hard to replicate.”

Sam: “I think the Bills OC is one of the best in the league. I think Allen just had his potential unlocked, I see a lot of great years ahead. Granted, I see the Bills OC becoming a HC next year. I was surprised he didn’t get a shot this year.”

Will: “Absolutely agree, he put Allen in a lot of good situations and Allen took advantage. I don’t see him falling off a cliff, I have him as my 2b for a good reason, basically a coin-flip. But as I stated, I think we have seen Allen at his best, Kyler has more in my opinion.”

Zach Wilson

Sam: “Will and Ben, what do you guys like about Zach Wilson?”

Will: “I love the potential, but I wouldn’t touch him at his ADP. I was super intrigued, but I get a Johnny Football vibe from him. Not impressed.”

Ben: “Oh man, I liked Wilson when watching him. He’s definitely got the improv thing like Manziel did, but it was more purposeful I guess?…I don’t know how to put it. If I remember right, my notes on him were something like: phenomenal arm talent, great vision, excellent accuracy which doesn’t hold-up under pressure, lightning quick release, solid fundamentals, great rotational torque even when throwing on the move, and he’s got wheels. He’s slow to get through reads. Decision making was good, but I don’t know how that holds up when the speed of the game gets cranked up. He’s definitely got potential to put up 600-800 yards on the ground – but I don’t think he will. I’d think it’s closer to like 400ish.”

Sam: “I think he has great arm talent. His one year of production against reduced competition gives me hesitation but we have seen other small college and FBS QBs succeed. I think he has an above average o-line which is a rookie QBs best friend. I see some early season struggles but I think he might have the highest ceiling of any rookie QB this year. Long term I can see a fringe QB1. I want to see more of the offense and if they will follow-suit of San Francisco with a run heavy approach. A limiting factor of his fantasy upside could be volume of throws.”

Tua Tagovailoa

Will: “Let’s talk Tua next.”

Ben: “I have two main concerns with Tua. His arm seems limited, and he seems hesitant to capitalize on 1-on-1 opportunities on the boundary. I think that limits his ceiling, but I do like his floor. Plus, all of his receivers have some capacity to win-out underneath due to athleticism and/or size, and with the weapons there it really comes down to if he can capitalize. I personally like his chances to do that.”

Sam: “After listening to Tua talk about his struggles last year and admitting he didn’t have a full grasp on the playbook, I gained some respect for him. I feel like he may have had to work harder than he ever has before and didn’t expect it. That’s a negative but admitting your shortcomings in front of others and looking for help to improve is a sign of a strong leader. Tua has talent in spades, many people seem to have forgotten that. His arm is a question only time can answer.  The addition of Waddle is extremely beneficial for him, it gives him a target he is comfortable with and adds an aspect of the receiving game that was missing. I don’t expect top 10 numbers from him, but a finish in the 14-20 range is what I foresee.”

Will: “I can legitimately see better from him. I love him out of college, I think his ‘arm’ problems are lower-half. Hip issues affect every single thing you do in football. Another healthy year and training will be beneficial for him. His arm was never an issue in college, it was a positive.”