The ADP’s Are Too D*mn High!

Average Draft Position or ADP is something many of us use during our dynasty drafts. In this article I will center on a few players whose ADP is currently too high, and should be avoided at their current ADP. This article will focus mainly on the ADP rankings from https://dynastyleaguefootball.com (specifically their July, 2021 rankings).

Remember to not just focus on current hype while drafting. By taking players too early you may be setting yourself up for failure within your fantasy league. Sustained value is what we are shooting for and these players do not fit that mold!

Jalen Hurts (ADP – 27.75, QB 14)

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Jalen Hurts had a pretty exciting entrance to the league last year after the issues Carson Wentz went through. He was a good story, and I am honestly cheering for him as I was a fan of his during his collegiate years at the University of Alabama and Oklahoma. 

None of this makes any difference if his 52 percent completion percentage doesn’t improve. I can’t believe people are taking him over guys like Matthew Stafford, A.J. Brown and Antonio Gibson. He is a huge risk and one I would very much like to avoid. As I write this, there are also reports that the Texans and Eagles are discussing a trade involving Deshaun Watson. This leads me to believe that the Eagles aren’t 100 percent sold on Hurts and would prefer taking on the huge risk that Watson comes with instead. (One I will not speak to since we seriously have no idea what will happen)

Players to draft instead: A.J. Brown (ADP – 28), Stefon Diggs (ADP – 31.75), Matthew Stafford (ADP – 33.25), Antonio Gibson (ADP – 34.75)

Miles Sanders (ADP – 64.25, RB 21)

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Miles Sanders has been a decent player when on the field, but had runs of 82, 74 and 74 yards during the 2020 NFL campaign, which contributed to nearly 27 percent of his overall rushing totals for the year. 

To call him a home run hitter would be an understatement. Not only that, but he also has Boston Scott, Kerryon Johnson and Kenneth Gainwell (taken in the 5th round of this past year’s draft) all in the mix at running back. None of these guys have proven to be a full starter in the league yet, but they will absolutely dig into Sanders’ overall touches for the year. 

Players to draft instead: David Montgomery (ADP – 62), DJ Moore (ADP – 62.25), Allen Robinson (ADP – 66), Chris Carson (ADP – 77)

Josh Jacobs (ADP – 68.75, RB 22)

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Josh Jacobs, when given the opportunities, has been able to be a serviceable running back in fantasy football. He was getting enough touches to make up for his lower end yards per carry numbers and poor catching abilities. This will no longer be the case, in my opinion, with the addition of Kenyan Drake. 

Drake will not be an afterthought in this offense after signing a two-year $11 million contract to join the Las Vegas Raiders this off-season. I know the recent trend for Jacobs has already dropped significantly, but for me, this one can’t be undersold. Jacobs will lose a significant portion of his touches to Drake this year (as long as Drake can stay healthy) and will not be a top 25 RB. 

Players to draft instead: Allen Robinson (ADP – 66), Daniel Jones (ADP – 69), Brandon Aiyuk (ADP – 72.75), Chase Claypool (ADP – 73)

D.J. Chark (ADP – 92.75, WR 31)

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D.J. Chark is getting a lot of hype in some of the leagues I am in. People are expecting a lot from him and his ADP has risen because of it. To me, he isn’t even the wide receiver I want the most on that Jaguar team. Laviska Shenault is the player I would prefer here and his ADP (97.25) is below that of D.J.’s. 

D.J. ‘s numbers dropped from 2019 to 2020 and I believe that is because the true studs on the team are showing up. The addition of Trevor Lawrence will definitely benefit all, but with Shenault, Marvin Jones Jr., and Travis Etienne being more involved they will hurt D.J. Chark’s ceiling. He is a fine player, but not someone I would take at this spot. 

Players to draft instead: Tyler Lockett (ADP – 89), Jerry Jeudy (ADP – 91.25), Cooper Kupp (ADP – 94), Laviska Shenault (ADP – 97.25)

Jonnu Smith (ADP – 149.25, TE 16)

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What an unfortunate landing spot for Jonnu Smith and his owners. He has had a couple decent years in Tennessee while being the main TE on the field. He now has Cam Newton or Mac Jones throwing him the ball and has to compete with Hunter Henry for touches. I was pretty excited to see where he landed during free agency, and in my eyes, this was a complete flop.

That New England offense will be improved from last year (could it be worse?!), but overall he won’t get the opportunities he had with AJ Brown/Corey Davis pulling away coverage and Ryan Tannehill throwing dimes. 

Players to draft instead: Corey Davis (ADP – 148), Cole Kmet (ADP – 150.5), Russel Gage (ADP – 157), Bryan Edwards (ADP – 160)

Additional Information

Everyone’s got one, who was your biggest over-drafted player? Also, what did you think of our list? Join the conversation and drop us a comment below!

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